Share Sounds from The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Myron Jobson of Interactive Investor discusses ESG or ethical investing funds with Simon Rose. He explains that, because green -orientated companies tend to be relatively new, they have suffered from the general rotation from growth to value stocks. For obvious reasons, they are underweight in the energy and defence sectors which have done well of late. He points out, though, that ESG funds have outperformed over the longer-term and suggests that investors be patient and not panic.

With even commodities now being dragged down by recession worries and fears of demand destruction, Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the three phases of bear markets. He believes we might be about to enter the second phase but that we are still some way off the worst. Investors should concentrate on the preservation of capital, avoiding undue risk and perhaps shedding investments they aren't too confident about.

Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that while central bankers may claim the war in Ukraine is responsible for inflation surging, it's their long-standing zero-interest-rate policy that has stacked the combustible material up ready to be ignited. For investors, the aim must be to preserve capital as markets react. Stress test your portfolio and think about sectors like banks (already pricing in recession) and real assets. There will be opportunities to come for those who have cash to hand.

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest from the ECB, hinting that it will increase rates by 25 basis points in July and ending its asset purchase programme. With the price of filling a tank now hitting £100, she discusses what it means not just for households but also businesses. Which can pass on rising costs? As well as oil and commodity companies, she suggests that it could be worth looking at the luxury brands; they seem fairly immune, as long as there's no recession.

Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses those central bankers, past and present, admitting their mistakes on inflation and demonstrating that they're as fallible as any of us. He points out that with markets rising for years, investors were lulled into a false sense of security. He thinks investors should now be concentrating on valuation of shares. With the bid for Countrywide, he thinks it could be worth looking at builders and perhaps also at banks, both sectors currently out of favour.

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses with Simon Rose Chancellor Rishi Sunak's measures to alleviate the effects of inflation on the more vulnerable members of the public. She comments on the U-turn over the oil producers' windfall tax; an Interactive Investor poll found people were concerned, not just about their own investments, but what it might mean for their pensions. The markets, however, appear to have priced the tax in in advance.

Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about representatives of the US Federal Reserve talking up interest rates, while big American retailers like Walmart and Target have demonstrated the problems they are already facing as inflation rises. So far they don't seem to be passing on all the price rises they face, while stock appears to be piling up. For Russ, the question now is what central banks will do and how far they can go before markets break.

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest UK GDP figures and the pound hitting a 2-year low. She discusses the sell-off in tech stocks around the world and the switch to value shares and those which provide decent dividend yields. She points out that Apple has lost its crown as the world's most valuable company to Saudi Aramco and takes a brief look at the plunge in crypto that debunks the idea Bitcoin might be an inflation hedge.

Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest US GDP numbers (-1.4% in the first quarter) and asks if the US is heading for a recession. She discusses the surge in Meta shares after its earnings topped estimates. Here banks Standard Chartered and Barclays both jumped after their latest numbers. And Unilever has announced another jump in its prices. Will it be able to pass on higher prices to its customers or lose sales as a result?

Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of 5 free indicators that any investor can follow quickly and easily to help decide what is coming next. He explains the importance of the oil price, the Dow Transportation Index, the health of small companies, the copper price and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Russ's conclusion: stagflation looks the likeliest outcome and real assets and gold could be an investor's best friend.