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The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency.’

Vladimir Lenin

 

There's no doubting the fact that trade imbalances have got completely out of hand over the past 2-3 decades. The focus today is on the United States and China, as Donald Trump attempts to use the brute force of tariffs in order to ‘make America great again’. However, the imposition of significant tariffs on international trade, whether as a first move or as retaliation, is really an admission of failure.

It is said that the outbreak of war is the result of the failure of politics, and it leaves everyone worse off. In a very similar way, the imposition of tariffs on international trade is the outcome of failure to allow currencies to float freely, and it too will leave everyone worse off.

The extent of trade imbalances is crystal clear in a chart from Economic Intelligence (see full article). The massive shift to a huge surplus for China and a huge U.S. deficit stands out vividly. As Juliet Samuel wrote in The Times last Thursday, China's determination to become the world's factory has left the West paying the price in lost jobs and mounting debts. It may not have been what Lenin meant by ‘debauching the currency’, but Russia’s communist neighbour’s success in resisting any appreciation of the value of the Renminbi has certainly achieved that objective.

The chart of the US$ versus the Chinese renminbi over the past thirty years (see full article) is a graphic illustration of the problem. Rather than the exchange rate adjusting to provide commercially competitive pricing between the world's two largest economies, China has deliberately held down its currency’s value in order to deliver cheaper prices for Chinese goods imported into the USA. As the US Treasury recognised in 2019, this was the result of overt manipulation.

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We've published over 385 of these weekly commentaries covering a wide range of issues, and you can find links here to the full list over the past seven years.

 

 

 

 

The prospects for restoring growth and seeing further reductions in interest rates attract the attention of The Bigger Picture and This Is Money, while Motley Fool Money continues to digest the challenge for tech giants and for maintaining a distinction between political and investment views. Meanwhile, The Financial Outlook considers consumer trends, and there is a new Modern Mindset looking at business confidence. Plus, there are, of course, our regular reviews of the latest gadgets and movies — and please note that for quick links to Gadgets & Gizmos podcasts via Spotify, Apple, and Amazon, just click here:

 

 

 

 

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It's great to see Simon Rose, presenter of The Bigger Picture, The Financial Outlook, Gadgets & Gizmos and The Business of Film recognised in the Radio Times!

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If we are to establish a more equitable society — supporting the individual human achievement so vital for democratic capitalism, but at the same time based on egalitarian principles — it is also vital to provide the necessary academic rigour to support its propositions.

King’s College, Cambridge, in partnership with the University's Faculty of Economics, has established the SHARE research project (Supporting Human Achievement through Research based on Egalitarian Principles) with a four-year post-doctoral research fellowship. Areas of research include inter-generational wealth transfer; human capital (improving inequality and productivity through education and training); disintermediation; and mass ownership.

Share Alliance is being established as a registered charity to support and provide oversight for the research project.

On Friday 14th April '23 its first half-day conference took place, concentrating on two leading propositions: inter-generational rebalancing and 'Stock for Data'. It was also an opportunity to hear about underlying principles and its planning for the future, and there was a panel session for general discussion.

Video recordings of all five sessions are available via the Share Alliance website. Presentation slides are also available here

 

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In partnership with publishers Harriman House, Share Radio has produced the audiobook 'Superinvestors', written by Matthew Partridge and read by some of Share Radio's best known presenters: Simon Rose, Fenella Fudge, Glen Thompsett, Ed Bowsher and accomplished actor David Ricardo Pearce, whose ancestor is featured in the book.

Order your audiobook download of Superinvestors 

Welcome to Gavin Oldham's full presentation describing his vision for egalitarian capitalism.

The main set of proposals are as follows:

Egalitarian Capitalism is an alternative to socialism which, while fostering and encouraging enterprise for all, acts to involve and empower people right across society and especially the young. 

Six key steps of egalitarian capitalism

  1. A proper programme of financial education to help people from all walks of life to build a personal store of freely disposable assets.
  2. Setting the conditions for disinter-mediation, in particular reducing the extent of parasitic inter-mediation which separates people from a sense of ownership and control.
  3. Direct share ownership: drawing together employee, consumer and share-owner, providing much improved corporate governance so that individual share-owners can participate fully in the companies in which they have chosen to invest.
  4. Calls for risk to be properly recognised when setting taxation on reward. This means encouraging innovation and continuing to recognise the risks taken by self-employed people.
  5. Addresses inter-generational equity, introducing a programme of incentivised financial learning for the disadvantaged young, fuelled from inheritance tax receipts, to enable them to achieve their full potential in adult life.
  6. Tackles one of the most difficult issues for democratic capitalism: universal benefits. It proposes a new voluntary approach for higher taxpayers to make discretionary payments for using universal, state-run services.
Thought for the Week: How tech could lift the debt straitjacket

Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, have warned of serious consequences for public finances if significant action isn't taken. The assumption is that this must be achieved by lifting growth in productivity. But what if the main impediment to traditional economic growth, as evidenced by GDP, is endemic demonetization brought about by advancing technology and automation? Is it time to look for a radically new approach which will allow everyone to participate in that wealth creation? Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny

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Thought for the Week: Dishonesty on a Pedestal

More than seven million people tuned in for the explosive finale of the third series of hit BBC series 'The Traitors', an entertaining romp through the psychological effects of dishonesty. The BBC has succeeded in making adjustments so that dishonesty doesn't always win, but the finale showed clearly how it evaporates trust. In a wider context, it's becoming increasingly clear that social media is driving people apart by enabling people to express views and aggression 'at arms length' — the removal of fact-checking is another significant step backwards. Does social media drive people apart? We should not delay in seeking more research on the question. Background music: 'Hidden Agenda' by Kevin MacLeod — 'Hidden Agenda' by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license

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Thought for the Week: Tackling Child Poverty with Inter-generational Rebalancing

Gordon Brown and Ruth Kelly set out a comprehensive plan to tackle child poverty with the Child Trust Fund. We've learnt a huge amount from putting it into practice over the past two decades, and we're now ready for a more focused 'Mark 2' which will embody all of the lessons learnt. But will our new Labour Government have the strategic determination to follow their example? Or will it fall to today's philanthropists, walking in the footsteps of people like Andrew Carnegie, to take up the baton? The encouragement to make significant charitable endowments remains intact in inheritance taxation arrangements, and can support 75% of the commitment necessary to deliver a new scheme. Background music: 'Generations Away' by Unicorn Heads

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The Bigger Picture: Starmer & the EU, Is Reeves' growth speech enough and Trump & Gaza

While "Never Here" Keir Starmer thinks the UK can reset its position with the EU, political commentator Mike Indian believes the government is viewing the stagnating EU with rose-tinted spectacles and that this will not be a panacea for our financial troubles. Despite talking about it a great deal, the government has done little so far to promote growth and Reeves' recent speech highlighting a third runway at Heathrow will do little to change that. We need a better-connected country and should be encouraging local mutuals. Mike finds Trump's ideas for Gaza irresponsible and risks plunging the region back into conflict.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: IntelliAM & UK consumer trends

Finlay Mathers of Edison Group thinks investors should keep an eye on IntelliAM which uses AI software to provide solutions to target inefficiencies for companies in the FMCG (Fast-Moving Consumer Goods) sector. Able significantly to reduce the time equipment lies idle, it is small but has really great growth potential. He also looks at the way profit forecasts in the consumer sector are proving more resilient than their underperforming share prices would suggest. He discusses which sectors and companies are doing well and will continue to succeed.

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Gadgets and Gizmos: The 500th edition – the good, the bad and the truly weird from 10 years of the show

For the 500th show, Steve Caplin takes a look back at some of the highlights of ten years of Gadgets & Gizmos. He covers sprayable sleep, cows imitating zebras to ward off mosquitoes, crows collecting cigarette butts, NFTs, self-parking slippers, KFC chicken-tasting nail polish, the first human head transplant, the Skunklock noxious bike lock, Refrigerdating, the robot dog flamethrower, ant populated gin and how to make pain relief pills 10 times more effective.

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The Business of Film: Companion, Presence & You're Cordially Invited

James Cameron-Wilson says that UK box office is down for the fifth week in a row. #3 is ‘Companion’ which James says is best enjoyed knowing little about it. It has laughs, thrills and plenty of surprises but is essentially a black comedy. Steven Soderbergh's horror ‘Presence’ has slipped to #20 but James found it a one-trick pony with little flesh on its bones, short though it is. He suggests everyone avoids at all costs Amazon Prime's matrimonial romcom ‘You're Cordially Invited’. With Will Ferrell and Reese Witherspoon, it is depressing, irritating and mean-spirited and beggars belief in its awfulness.

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The Business of Film: A Complete Unknown, Wolf Man & Back in Action

James Cameron-Wilson reports on box office -13% but still up on 2024, with ‘Wicked’ becoming last year's most successful film with £59.6m. The musical biopic of Bob Dylan, ‘A Complete Unknown’, with Timothy Chalomet and Edward Norton is the new #1. The tedious and unbelievable ‘Wolf Man’ limps in at #7. James found Netflix's spy thriller ‘Back in Action’, the return from retirement of Cameron Diaz, all very silly and over the top, despite some good stunts. The Oscar nominations were coming out during recording, so James gives his first thoughts on who's in and who's out.

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This Is Money: Will interest rates keep falling and can we dodge recession?

Georgie Frost, Simon Lambert and Helen Crane consider reducing interest rates — are they opening up a divergence between central banks in the U.S., the UK and Europe? What are the implications for mortgages and savings? They consider how investments fared in the pandemic crash and rebound, and what the implications might be as a result of Trump's trade wars. And they review Nectar's stolen points problem.

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Motley Fool Money: Big Tech’s $300B Spending Spree (7/2)

DeepSeek hasn’t dissuaded big tech’s on cloud buildout spend. Ron Gross and Jason Moser discuss what the Jobs report and the tariff headfake mean for the big macro, earnings from Amazon and Alphabet, and big tech’s $300B cap ex plans for 2025, and PayPal’s good quarter/bad reaction, Spotify’s music streaming supremacy, and Chipotle’s plans to burrito the world. Then, 19 minutes in, this year’s Super Bowl offers a rematch from two years ago, a Kendrick Lamar halftime show, and if the NFL regular season’s been any indication – plenty of ads for sports betting Ricky Mulvey caught up with Motley Fool analyst Nick Sciple for the investing angle on legalized sports betting and why parlays are the penny stocks of gambling. Finally, 34 minutes in, Ron and Jason break down two stocks on their radar: Academy Sports And Outdoors and Uber. Stocks discussed: AMZN, GOOG, GOOGL, PYPL, SPOT, CMG, DK, MGM, AOS, UBER. Host - Dylan Lewis;
Guests - Ron Gross, Jason Moser, Ricky Mulvey, Nick Sciple

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Motley Fool Money: Your Political Brain vs. Your Investing Decisions (4/2)

Think you know how the trade wars will shake out? Don’t bet on it. Jim Gillies and Ricky Mulvey discuss the reaction to potential tariffs in Canada, separating your political ideas from your investments, and PayPal’s $15 billion buyback authorization. Then, 16 minutes in, Alison Southwick and Robert Brokamp offer some ways to get your 401(k) in better shape. Companies mentioned: PYPL. Host - Ricky Mulvey; Guests - Jim Gillies, Alison Southwick, Robert Brokamp

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The Hypnotist: Wash Away Guilt and Shame

Most people carry burdens of guilt and shame, perhaps from decades ago. Sometimes it's not due to personal responsibility, but part of a wider issue. This episode helps to come to terms with these things, to let them go. Whether they have served their purpose or call for some forgiveness, this episode can help with moving on.

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Gadgets and Gizmos: Christmas gift guide

Steve Caplin gives Simon Rose a plethora of tech ideas for Christmas gifts, for others and for yourself. He finds some bizarre advent calendars. The top toy for kids appears to be a Fart Blaster. From the Chinese version of Amazon, Alibaba, he recommends heated gloves, a vacuum phone holder, a portable ceiling fan, sewing needles that thread themselves and a car charger with retractable cables. There's also a camera drone, an impressive iPhone case, rechargeable LED work lights, colour changing LED bulbs, magnetic tool holders and an avocado slicer. He was delighted with his game-playing SteamDeck and also recommends Bridge Command, where you can immerse yourself in a Star Trek-style experience. 

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Motley Fool Money: Many Thanks, Mr. Buffett (27/11)

Warren Buffett sends us into the season to be thankful with his philanthropic acts and his poignant words, and gives us all a place to start the conversation with family about money. Asit Sharma and Dylan Lewis discuss NBC’s negotiations to extend their rights to broadcast rights to the Macy’s Day Parade, and why holiday live events are turning into an arms race, the expectations for Black Friday through Cyber Monday, and two predictions on the direction of consumer spend and who will be driving it in future years, and Warren Buffett’s plans for passing his wealth on to his family and philanthropic efforts, and the words of wisdom we should all have in mind as we get together with loved ones this week. Companies discussed: CMCSA, M, NFLX, AMZN, BRK.A, BRK.B. Host - Dylan Lewis; Guests - Asit Sharma

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Modern Mindset: Thea Watson — a new report About Business Confidence

Adam Cox is joined by Thea Watson from Bright HR. They discuss a new report carried out by Bright HR, all about business confidence. What did it find? Well, it shows how 68% of UK businesses who have embraced a technology strategy see growth as their number one objective for 2025.Shockingly though, over half of all survey respondents — many without a tech plan — say they are not expecting to grow in 2025, and more than a quarter are simply looking to survive. https://www.brighthr.com/

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Modern Mindset: Dr Frances Stetson on Inclusive Schools Week

Adam Cox is joined by Dr Frances from Stetson & Associates. With VAT charges on private school fees in place from January, leading inclusivity experts are urging the UK government and local authorities to commit funds to meaningful change. With it being Inclusive Schools Week, Dr Stetson offers her insight and perspective. https://stetsonassociates.com/

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UK Parliament: Budget Speech 30 October 2024

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivers her first Budget. The recording is unabridged and without additional comment.

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The Bigger Picture: The King's Speech

The State Opening of Parliament on Wednesday 17th July was somewhat of a watershed after fourteen years of Conservative governments. Here is the unabridged King's Speech, encapsulating in just over twelve minutes the priorities of the new Labour Government. Image Source: Daily Express. Background music following the speech: 'Pastorale' by Joel Cummins

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Thought for the Week: Action required for Default CTF Pay-out

The core of the problem with unclaimed, adult-owned Child Trust Funds (of which there are over £2 billion waiting to be claimed) is with accounts opened by HMRC. That's why The Share Foundation has proposed a 'default withdrawal at 21' process, based on the young person's National Insurance number. Danny Kruger MP took part in the CTF conference in Westminster on Tuesday 5th March, and two weeks later in a Westminster Hall CTF debate, and supported this initiative which could release £1/4 billion each year to help these young and predominantly low-income young adults. Background music: 'Waiting' by Andrew Langdon

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The Financial Outlook: Westminster Hall debate on family access for CTFs of disabled

The debate on 19th March 2024 was hosted by Sir Jeremy Quin MP to call for the need to simplify family access to Child Trust Funds for disabled young people, and a number of MPs contributed to the debate, including Danny Kruger and Ed Davy. The audio record is provided by Parliament Live, and is an unabridged recording of proceedings, without additional comment. Listeners may notice an adjournment for voting in the House of Commons.

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Modern Mindset: Gemma Bourne on Ending Homelessness

Adam Cox is joined by Gemma Bourne from Big Society Capital to discuss why the government should reallocate a larger proportion of its existing spend to further scale initiatives that tackle the UK's homelessness and temporary accommodation crisis. With new research showing that these house funds are already having a major impact, it could help us combat homelessness. https://bigsocietycapital.com/

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The Bigger Picture: Milei lecturing the WEF, plummeting EV car sales & the truth about Gen Z

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University explains why he so enjoyed new Argentine President Javier Milei lecturing the great and good of the World Economic Forum about libertarian and Austrian economics, attacking corporatism and socialism. He feels Milei could be the most consequential politician economically-speaking for many years. He also looks at falling EV car sales, lamenting the way in which politicians set goals for achieving their hobbyhorses irrespective of scientific progress and consumer demand. And he is fascinated by a meeting between journalist John Humphreys and members of Gen Z, which showed them to be different to the popular perception.

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How to set about Investing

Welcome to a special episode of The Financial Outlook: the investment section of the Managing My Money course. What's the difference between saving and investment? It's all in the risk. We talk about shares, bonds and funds, and which perform best over the long term. The Managing My Money course has 16 sections in total, and is presented by Glen Goodman and Annie Weston. You can enjoy the whole course, produced in association with the Open University via Share Radio's home page. Here's the link to the slides for this episode: https://www.shareradio.co.uk/help-guides/managing-my-money/supporting-slides/mmm-week-5-episode-10-supporting-slides/

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Thought for the Week: Don't waste the Child Trust Fund harvest!

“The [Child Trust Fund] scheme has been closed to new entrants for over 12 years. In this time HMRC has been focusing resources on evaluating and improving existing schemes. We will continue to keep the need to evaluate old schemes under review.” So said Andrew Griffith MP, Economic Secretary to HM Treasury in reply to a parliamentary question from John Ashworth MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions. But this is not an 'old scheme' — there is currently over £1.7 billion sitting in mature accounts belonging to over 900,000 mainly low-income young adults throughout the UK who don't know anything about their good fortune! Their Child Trust Fund harvest is seeing too little action at present: but it's not too late to get it sorted, and the current focus from the National Audit Office and Public Accounts Committee will certainly help.
Background music: 'Hopeful Freedom' by Asher Fulero

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Thought for the Week: Solving the AI Challenge to Wealth, Control and Intelligence

The huge take-up of ChatGPT over recent weeks has brought the challenge of Artificial Intelligence into sharp relief. As the Chief Executive of its creator, OpenAI, said in one of his blogs, 'Artificial Intelligence will bring unimaginable wealth but, unless something changes, most of us will get none of it. We need a radical solution'. Conventional wisdom sees Universal Basic Income as the way through this dilemma, but this will only bring us more state intermediation and human subservience. We can put forward a better solution, by enabling all to share in the wealth that technology brings and to play their part in its future governance.
Background music: 'Digital Solitude' by Silent Partner

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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The case for investment trusts

Jonathan Davis, editor of the Investment Trusts Handbook, tells Simon Rose what makes investment trusts special and why investors should consider their merits. He explains the differences to other types of funds, including the premium and discount. He discusses the yields on alternative assets (including renewable energy and even music royalties) and how trusts can continue paying dividends even in bad years. The handbook, from Harriman House, is available in hardbook or free as an ebook (https://tinyurl.com/mt69fc24).

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Motley Fool Answers: So Long, and Thanks for All the STOCKS!

It’s the last episode of Answers (but don’t worry, we’re just moving to Motley Fool Money every Tuesday). We’ll reminisce on our biggest lessons learned over the last seven years and answer your questions, some financial, some festive.

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   The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why investing in shares needs a much higher profile on TV and Radio
Lord John Lee has become a champion for people investing in the stock market over recent years: he's written three books on investing, he's a patron of ShareSoc, the society for individual shareholders in the United Kingdom, and he's now challenging Government, broadcasters and regulators to encourage a much higher profile for investing in shares on TV and radio. Gavin Oldham meets with John to discuss the background to his initiative and his proposals for change; and they go on to consider how customer share ownership can be expanded, how to encourage more active participation in shareholder voting, and how to improve financial education.
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The Talk by The WealthiHer Network: Female high-powered businesses

The Talk by the WealthiHer Network, every month on Share Radio: this month we are here to talk about the secrets of some of UK leading female businesses leaders and their journeys within launching their businesses. Tamara Gillan is joined by Charlotte Bobroff, the executive director at J.P. Morgan who has been incremental with working with female founders from female high-powered businesses. She recently curated an event surrounding female high-powered businesses and she will be discussing her findings. Also, we have the pleasure of Daina Speddings, who is an investor at BGF and will share her perspective on the investment journey.

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Share Drama: A Christmas Carol - the beloved classic, retold!

Scrooge has made the deal of his life with Chinese investors and must now quickly return to London on Christmas Eve to close the deal. On the flight back, during a fitful sleep, Scrooge confronts his past and present and learns the future consequences of his miserly life to find the true meaning of Christmas. Proscenium Online Theatre is super excited to be bringing you a whole new season of audio dramas in 2022. Starting off with 'The Girl in the Yellow Dress', a dark romance by South African playwright Craig Higginson, and 'Plunder', an original Hong Kong based thriller by American playwright Alan Olejniczak. In the meantime - sit back, close your eyes and enjoy the Proscenium Online Theatre’s production of 'A Christmas Carol'.

https://www.prosceniumonlinetheatre.com

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Gavin Oldham Capital Economics UK economy Brexit
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University discusses with Simon Rose the ideas behind Egalitarian Capitalism as espoused by Gavin Oldham OBE, amongst other things the founder of Share Radio. He's keen to see a world with inter-generational rebalancing, where everyone has a disintermediated stake in capitalism (for more, see tinyurl.com/mrhzcb27). Tim also asks if Boris Johnson is still a lucky general or are his days numbered?
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Investor Conferences: Panel Sesson - Sustainable & Social Investing in a Post-Covid World

Join the Sustain:Social panel session on December '21, considering the outlook for investors in the wake of the COP26 in Glasgow. The panel comprises of - Chair: Rodney Hobson Panel: Gervais Williams (Premier Miton Group); Jamie Broderick (Impact Investing Institute); Mohan Gundu (Sustainable Funds Group); Mike Appleby (Liontrust Sustainable Investment team); Gavin Oldham (The Share Foundation / Share Radio).

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The Bigger Picture: Trussell Trust, helping UK food banks rise to the challenge

Food banks are providing a vital role to help people this winter, and the Trussell Trust supports more than 1,200 throughout the United Kingdom. In this special episode of The Bigger Picture, their Chief Executive Emma Revie briefs supporters about their progress, and their plans for the future. If you would like to support the extraordinary work undertaken by this charity, please visit https://trusselltrust.org

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The Bigger Picture: A World of Individual Opportunity - the Vision of Egalitarian Capitalism

Imagine a world in which everyone has a stake in the great tech firms that serve them each day, and where dividends are gradually replacing wages to provide regular income for everyone, as work becomes scarcer as a result of automation? Imagine a world where every young person not only has a small inheritance with which to start their adult life, but also the opportunity to build its value by learning life skills? Simon Rose is taking a well-earned break this week, so we’re taking the opportunity to bring you a talk given Gavin Oldham in August to the leading City of London think-tank Z/Yen.

Click link for slides for presentation

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 Economist Questions: A ‘Good’ and ‘Efficient’ Workplace: Tricky Balancing Act?
Research into workplace productivity and management practice is often focused on the links between ‘Good’ and ‘Efficient’ practices. ‘Good’ covers employee-friendly policies; for instance, those providing opportunities for better Work Life Balance. In contrast, ‘Efficient’ practice includes the use of KPIs, setting clear performance expectations and tackling underperformance where it is identified. In this episode Peter Urwin and Professor Richard Saundry discuss this, drawing on their own understanding as researchers and experiences as line managers. The operational reality is that managers hold a position between the interests of their organisation and those who work for them – how do they balance the (often competing) need to create both efficient and good workplaces?
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VIDEO: Tracking down £1bn of missing Child Trust Fund cash

Every child in the UK born between 1 Sept 2002 and 2 Jan 2011 has a Child Trust Fund (CTF). But one child in six has lost contact with the money. Gavin Oldham, Chairman of The Share Foundation – which runs the Junior ISA & Child Trust Fund schemes for children in care for the Department for Education - is trying to re-connect them. He talks through the CTF, how to track an account down, and what a child can and can’t do with the money.

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Superinvestors

In a new partnership with publishers Harriman House, Share Radio has produced its first audiobook 'Superinvestors', written by Matthew Partridge and read by some of Share Radio's best known presenters. 'Superinvestors' lays bare the investing secrets of legendary investors - from early 20th-century figures such as Benjamin Graham and John Maynard Keynes, through to more modern names such as Anthony Bolton and Warren Buffett.

LISTEN HERE
The Share Foundation

How you can help young people in care prepare for adult life by supporting The Share Foundation’s ‘Stepladder of Achievement’ programme.

LISTEN HERE

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Share Radio has put together a list of our ‘Top 5 Money Saving Apps’ to help our listeners make the most of their money.  All the apps featured here are free to download on either Apple or Android devices. Read more...

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