“Recovery is something that you have to work on every single day and it's something that doesn't get a day off.”
Demi Lovato
The long wait for warm dry weather has seemed to mirror the months of lockdown. In many respects, we can at last look ahead, even if the 21st June arrangements are still in some doubt.
The past week has been full of criticism of Government, but it’s worth noting that there have been two outstandingly good decisions over the pandemic, which will enable Britain to look forward to a swift recovery: vaccines and furlough. Progress with the former has been well-celebrated, but the fact that only 8% of employees now remain on furlough shows an economy recovering fast.
So in this commentary we look ahead with a strong degree of optimism, while still acknowledging that, in global terms, one swallow doesn't make a summer.
The news that tax revenues are recovering fast - the annual rise in income and capital gains tax receipts was over 31% in April, and VAT receipts were up by nearly 9% - shows that Britain is indeed getting back to business.
The economic policy which has contributed most to this high speed recovery is the furlough scheme. Whereas in the United States, millions of workers were laid off and unemployment pay soared, in Britain the furlough scheme enabled us to hold onto the link between employee and employer.
The overall impact on the public purse might not have been that different; but the key for a swift recovery is that British businesses have been marking time during the pandemic, whereas American businesses have had to search afresh for job seekers: which is not proving an easy task. In this week’s Financial Outlook for Personal Investors, Russ Mould looks at mounting wage pressures in the United States and its potential impact on inflation – but it also points to friction in getting people back to work.
Of course, HM Revenue & Customs have used employers as their agents for decades: collecting taxes and National Insurance, recovering student debt and council tax arrears, etc. So furlough may have appeared a natural policy to cope with a medium-term economic freeze: but it certainly has been very successful.
In contrast to Dominic Cummings’ bitterly downbeat assessment of Government, there is clear evidence of a coherent and business-like team of ministers, who have made a succession of good calls: including Sunak, Zahawi, Hancock, Truss and others.
Also, in this half-term round-up of ‘Glass Half Full’, it's worth noting that The Share Foundation’s programme of virtual CTF events is now underway, with dates planned for each region between now and the end of October. If you know of any 16-18 year-olds who are unaware of their good fortune, please suggest that they register for one of these events.
Finally, it's now been a month since we combined Share Radio and Share Music, and suspended the monthly subscription arrangements. These changes have all been made successfully, and we're delighted to be able to inform you that we will not be returning to subscription radio in future.
In its place, selected programmes are now being uploaded through the major podcast distributors and we look forward to this source of advertising revenue enabling good and varied programme content into the future.
If you use Spotify, ITunes, Stitcher, Amazon or Pandora, please watch out for our output. To make it easier to find our programmes, we have also taken a leaf out of Aberdeen Standard Life's re branding exercise (Abrdn) to use the invitation ‘Hrkn to www.shareradio.co.uk for more ..’!
Gavin Oldham OBE
Share Radio