“Give your grace abundantly to our European Union Leaders, that they may lead with wisdom and insight.”
++ John Sentamu in February 2019, then Archbishop of York
It was four years ago last Saturday, on 4th March 2019, that we published ‘It's all down to Leo’, our commentary which called for EU pragmatism in resolving the impasse over Northern Ireland and Brexit.
It didn't happen.
Theresa May was then UK Prime Minister with a small and fractious majority, but the main barrier to common sense was Leo Varadkar; who was then — and is again now, since 17th December 2022 — head of government (Taoiseach) in the Republic of Ireland.
The reason why it has taken four years to knock some sense into what has now emerged as the Windsor Framework is that Varadkar saw Brexit as an opportunity to push hard for breaking Northern Ireland away from the United Kingdom, trying to force Irish unification — see our commentary on 15th October 2018, 'Why are post-Brexit borders an issue for Ireland when they're clearly not a problem for France?'. He saw his opportunity in the strong vote for ‘Remain’ in the Northern Irish 2016 Brexit vote; which should perhaps have been followed directly with a vote on unification, as we reflected in our commentary in March 2019.
But it wasn't, and Leo Varadkar made it absolutely impossible for Theresa May to strike a sensible deal with the European Union.
So, it only became possible to knock sense into the Brexit outcome once Boris, armed with his very direct slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’ and with his impressive parliamentary majority following the December 2019 general election, took the EU bull by the horns. We all knew it couldn't be the end of the story and that, if EU intransigence remained, it could lead to unilateral action being taken over the ‘Northern Irish Protocol’.
So now, four years on, John Sentamu’s prayer has been answered. Grace, Wisdom and Insight are the order of the day in Brussels, Dublin and Westminster.
But it wouldn't have been so, save for Boris.
That's why the UK media should stop its merciless attacks on Mr. Johnson. On the big issues (unlike ‘Partygate’) his calls have almost always been correct, and on Brexit he really doesn't deserve the kind of cartoon displayed last Wednesday in The Times. If Boris had not stood his ground, Rishi Sunak would not have achieved this resolution.
The Times cartoon on 1st March 2023 © Times Newspapers
Therefore when George Trefgarne, CEO and Founder of Boscobel Partners, says ‘Unlike his immediate predecessors as Prime Ministers, Rishi Sunak deserves credit for beginning to put that calmly into practice’, I would urge him to consider the journey that we have experienced over these past four years, and not just this eventual outcome.
But George is strongly optimistic for the future, and he is right to see the Windsor Framework as opening the doors for major opportunities ahead. He cites much of British business as being primed for recovery, not only through increased trade with the European Union but also internationally — including China. He draws attention to our prospects for re-joining the Horizon research programme, which has also enthused British scientists at the Royal Society.
The resolution of the Irish impasse also brings two major agreements closer: the first, on the role that UK Financial Services can play within the European Union — a relationship which also got left out in the cold as a result of those painful struggles four years ago. The second is to bring forward the prospects for a transatlantic trade deal with the United States, where President Biden has made clear his reluctance to move forward while the Irish dilemma remained unresolved.
So, the door is now open for a significant move forward, and no doubt Rishi Sunak will get widespread credit for his calm and pragmatic approach.
But please don't forget Boris Johnson’s contribution.
If his firm stance on Brexit had not been taken in late 2019, just a few months after our commentary was published, the United Kingdom would have remained wallowing in post-Brexit malaise for years to come. Instead of this, we've now reached a point where we can be friends and neighbours with our EU partners again, on equal terms.
On 11th July last year, just after Boris was forced out of office, we said that ‘There has to be a role for the unconventional’. People like Boris are hard to tame, but they bring a lot of dynamism and inspiration alongside their unpredictable and challenging leadership style.
Over the next month, Boris will be in the headlines for all the wrong reasons — mainly, concerning whether or not he misled the House of Commons over ‘Partygate’ issues. However he still has a huge amount to offer, and I hope a consensus can be reached which will enable him to continue to make a constructive contribution to our challenged world.
Gavin Oldham OBE
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