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Gavin Oldham

Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Child Trust Funds — Public Accounts Committee Hearing Part 2

Gavin Oldham
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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Child Trust Funds — Public Accounts Committee Hearing Part 2
Young adults with Child Trust Funds are personal investors, but over 40% of them don't know it. On Thursday 18th May the Public Accounts Committee met to find out more: this is the second half of their hearing following the March 2023 publication of a National Audit Office landmark report and its investigation into the Child Trust Fund scheme. Witnesses who took part were, for HM Revenue and Customs, Jim Harra and Emily Antcliffe, and for The Share Foundation, Gavin Oldham and Anthony Walker. Members of the Public Accounts Committee (all MPs) who attended were Dame Meg Hillier (chair), Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Deputy Chair), Olivia Blake, Flick Drummond, Peter Grant, Jill Mortimer and Nick Smith. The hearing ran for over an hour and a half: this is the second 48 minutes.
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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Interest rates and share buybacks

Simon Rose
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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Interest rates and share buybacks
After the Bank of England raise interest rates to their highest since 2008 Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that the last time inflation was in double digits, so were interest rates. At present, real interest rates are heavily negative. He also discusses share buybacks, illegal in the US until 1982. They're now being used heavily by FTSE100 companies and Russ discusses their pros and cons and whether they gerrymander figures. He also explains why Next is a company that does it right.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does US interest rate rise signify for UK rates?

Simon Rose
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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does US interest rate rise signify for UK rates?
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor explains why the US Fed raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a 16-year-high, despite the turmoil in the American banking sector. It makes it all the more likely that the MPC will follow suit. Despite the American move, sterling is at an 11-month high against the dollar. She also looks at results from BP and Shell and discusses the major slide in oil prices.
Guest:

Victoria Scholar

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Big tech must deliver to maintain momentum

Simon Rose
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The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Big tech must deliver to maintain momentum
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the importance of the American tech stocks, once the FANGs and now MAANAM. All suffered steep price falls last year but, of the $2.4tn rebound in the S&P 500, $1.6tn has come from these six. Russ points out that the better their share prices do, the less downside protection there is. Inflation and interest rates are also a consideration to their valuation. But with no correspondingly important UK tech stocks, they're vitally important to British investors through tracker or other investment vehicles, even if they might not realise it. If their momentum is to continue, their results must deliver.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: With inflation persisting, where are interest rates headed?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: With inflation persisting, where are interest rates headed?
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor summarises the latest UK inflation and employment statistics. In the light of general inflation remaining above 10% and with the likes of food and drink considerably higher than that, what do economists think will happen with interest rates? Is a hike more likely now? Will the economy fall into a recession this year? And will the UK stock market's tear come to an end?
Guest:

Victoria Scholar

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Gold and gold mining shares

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Gold and gold mining shares
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at gold, which recently went above $2,000 an ounce again. He asks how the metal, which produces no income, can be valued. Believing it is NOT an inflation hedge, he does think it can be a hedge against loss of faith in central bankers. Despite a round of mergers and acquisitions in the industry, while gold has risen 30% since 2020, gold shares, out of fashion, are only up 12%. While smaller and riskier than the giants, he wonders if some UK gold producers could be considered cheap.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What lessons should we learn from banking problems?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What lessons should we learn from banking problems?
Russ Mould of A J Bell finds it curious that central bankers are not looking in the mirror, but blaming social media and older people for recent problems, given that an excess of cheap money is at the root of so much that has gone wong. He believes there will still be reckonings to come in some areas and that the chances of a recession in the US have increased. UK investors, though, should concentrate on value and ignore short-term static. Don't be influenced by the mistakes of others.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The BoE raises interest rates for the 11th time in a row

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The BoE raises interest rates for the 11th time in a row
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor discusses the MPC's decision to raise interest rates 25 basis points to 4.25%, although there were 2 votes against the move. With inflation ticking up again, the Bank is clearly still concerned about how far CPI is above its 2% target, maintaining that the UK banking system is robust, despite problems in the US and Switzerland. While savers may cheer rising rates, Victoria points out that inflation is still well above savings rates, so there's a negative real return.
Guest:

Victoria Scholar

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The UK Budget & market nervousness over the banks

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The UK Budget & market nervousness over the banks
Russ Mould of A JBell thinks Jeremy Hunt delivering the Budget did his best with a weak hand. Essentially, there is no money when the national interest bill is £100bn. Market nervousness about contagion from SVB and Credit Suisse Russ puts down to money being cheap for far too long. It has meant that too many people have done risky, silly things. Nervous investors should remember the basics, sticking to disciplined companies with sound management. He also wonders if 5% is the new 17%.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: UK economic indicators & the hawkish Fed Chair

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: UK economic indicators & the hawkish Fed Chair
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at some of the recent indicators giving a guide to the state of the UK economy, including the Halifax house price index and the RICS's house price balance. She also looks at the recent retail sales numbers and KPMG's jobs market report. But the big driver of the market this week has been the hawkish testimony to Congress of Fed Chairman Jay Powell.
Guest:

Victoria Scholar

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