Russ Mould of A J Bell talks to Simon Rose about representatives of the US Federal Reserve talking up interest rates, while big American retailers like Walmart and Target have demonstrated the problems they are already facing as inflation rises. So far they don't seem to be passing on all the price rises they face, while stock appears to be piling up. For Russ, the question now is what central banks will do and how far they can go before markets break.
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest UK GDP figures and the pound hitting a 2-year low. She discusses the sell-off in tech stocks around the world and the switch to value shares and those which provide decent dividend yields. She points out that Apple has lost its crown as the world's most valuable company to Saudi Aramco and takes a brief look at the plunge in crypto that debunks the idea Bitcoin might be an inflation hedge.
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor talks to Simon Rose about the latest US GDP numbers (-1.4% in the first quarter) and asks if the US is heading for a recession. She discusses the surge in Meta shares after its earnings topped estimates. Here banks Standard Chartered and Barclays both jumped after their latest numbers. And Unilever has announced another jump in its prices. Will it be able to pass on higher prices to its customers or lose sales as a result?
Russ Mould of A J Bell tells Simon Rose of 5 free indicators that any investor can follow quickly and easily to help decide what is coming next. He explains the importance of the oil price, the Dow Transportation Index, the health of small companies, the copper price and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Russ's conclusion: stagflation looks the likeliest outcome and real assets and gold could be an investor's best friend.
Victoria Scholar of Interactive Investor looks at the latest inflation numbers, warning that further rises are now inevitable. She looks at the results of Tesco, Asos and Easyjet and how they are affected by so many costs soaring. She discusses how investors can navigate the inflationary environment, pointing out that with cash giving such a negligible return, it's not a time to be uninvested. Investors should think about sectors such as banks, oil & gas and commodities and about companies that are price-givers rather than price-takers.
While many nervously watch the US yield curve, which briefly reversed recently, Russ Mould of A J Bell thinks investors should also pay attention to transportation indicators such as the Dow Transportation Index. He believes the market is better at predicting recessions than economists. Explaining why the yield curve is important and why he thinks stagflation is on the cards, he believes investors should fight shy of bonds and growth stocks and lean towards raw materials and real assets.
Are you “financially fit”? According to a recent study, the cost of monthly bills is leaving some people forced to cut back on essentials like food, daily travel, and even medication. In this episode of the Share Interview, Vicky Sayers speaks to Mary Johnson – spokesperson for free home management site, Hoppy – to find out how we can improve our financial wellbeing. (first broadcast - September 2019)
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, delves into the Spring Statement, assessing its significance and what the Chancellor is doing to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. While the markets seemed indifferent to the Statement, it is becoming clear that the days of a "floating all boats" market are over. With increased volatility, it is now very much a stockpicker's market.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivers his statement, unabridged and with no additional comment. Major initiatives include a 5p/litre cut in fuel duty for 12 months, simplification and relief for energy saving home improvements, a doubling of household support via local authorities, a £3,000 increase in the National Insurance threshold, and a promise to cut the basic rate of income tax from 20p/£ to 19p/£ by the next election; plus reform of training, R&D credits and capital-raising.
Perusing the latest statement from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Russ Mould of A J Bell says that central bankers currently resemble porcupines in a balloon factory. For investors, trying to second-guess events is extremely difficult, if not impossible. So they should ensure they are sensibly diversified while trying to avoid heavily-indebted companies, particularly in cylical industries. If your portfolio is keeping you awake at night, says Russ, then you should change it.
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