Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the shakeout in UK energy companies and casts his eye across the Atlantic where President Biden has been trying to talk down the oil price. Noting that price rises might have something to do with the $14 trillion pumped into the US economy since the pandemic began, he speculates on what will happen to the oil and gas price with new exploration so frowned up.
He also looks at the second interest rate rise in New Zealand and, with 91 rises around the world so far this year, he wonders whether the Fed, BoE and ECB can continue to hold out.
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, asks if CPI rising to 4.2% indicates a return to rising prices or if it might prove relatively temporary. He looks at Shell's decision to ditch its dual-share class and commit to the UK. And he is intrigued by news that the Treasury and Bank of England are to consider a central bank digital currency, nicknamed Britcoin.
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks behind the 30-year-high numbers for US inflation. CPI is 6.2% but the producer price index is 8.6% with intermediate producer prices up 25% and raw materials climbing 57% year on year.
While high energy prices are responsible for some of that, he also points out that the capital investment of the oil majors is, despite the high oil price, at around a 20-year low. He explains the reason behind this (is oil the new tobacco?) but wonders if oil should be written off as an investment just yet.
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's decision to take no action on interest rates. He wonders if their "studious inactivity" is likely to prove wise and that all the evidence of mounting inflationary pressure will indeed be transient. Will we get the Goldilocks economy or has the horse already bolted through the open stable door? There must be a tipping point with interest rates in regard to equities, he says, but where will it be?
If you missed Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivering his speech on 27 October, here's your chance to hear it. Plus, read our commentary on Monday 1 November for Share Radio's perspective, including our assessment of the contrast with the mid-70s, when public borrowing last hit stratospheric levels.
Laith Khalaf of A J Bell discusses the slight fall in inflation last month to 3.1%, pointing out the distortions caused by the pandemic the year earlier. Markets are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November, but is it likely to happen? Laith looks forward to next week's Budget, thinking investors may be hit by a hike in CGT. And he also highlights the first Bitcoin ETF launching in the US, giving Bitcoin further legitimacy.
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, states the case for us heading into a period of inflation, deflation and stagflation. But which will it be? Cautioning that while it might be too early to tell for sure, investors should not expect more of what we've had for the past decade or so. Russ gives some guides to indicators investors should keep an eye on. He also reminds investors that it is always sensible to have some cash in hand - just in case.
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, discusses the recent sharp rise in gilt yields, explaining why it's happening (rising oil and gas prices and a fear of inflation) and why it is important for everyone, not just those with an interest in fixed interest securities. He also looks at the recent results from Tesco, which pleasantly surprised the market, and explains what the retailer is doing right at a time when one of its competitors has been taken over.
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the oil and gas crisis, which is affecting many countries, not just the UK. Central bankers are now showing belated signs of being concerned about inflation and possibly even stagflation. With shortages of microchips, fuel, CO2 and even Christmas turkeys, Russ offers advice to investors who may never have experienced a time of stagflation, last seen in the 1970s.
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, looks at the problems of Chinese property company Evergrande and considers what the financial ramifications are likely to be. With the Federal Reserve hinting that it might begin cutting its pandemic stimulus as early as November, he looks at the popularity of the UK government's first green gilt, which could have been sold ten times over, and the impending arrival of an NS&I green savings bond later this year.