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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook: How serious is UK inflation, Shell's simplification & Britcoin

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook: How serious is UK inflation, Shell's simplification & Britcoin
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, asks if CPI rising to 4.2% indicates a return to rising prices or if it might prove relatively temporary. He looks at Shell's decision to ditch its dual-share class and commit to the UK. And he is intrigued by news that the Treasury and Bank of England are to consider a central bank digital currency, nicknamed Britcoin.
Guest:

Laith Khalaf

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US inflation at a 30-year high & oil capex at a multi-year low

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US inflation at a 30-year high & oil capex at a multi-year low
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks behind the 30-year-high numbers for US inflation. CPI is 6.2% but the producer price index is 8.6% with intermediate producer prices up 25% and raw materials climbing 57% year on year. While high energy prices are responsible for some of that, he also points out that the capital investment of the oil majors is, despite the high oil price, at around a 20-year low. He explains the reason behind this (is oil the new tobacco?) but wonders if oil should be written off as an investment just yet.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does the MPC's "studious inactivity" imply?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: What does the MPC's "studious inactivity" imply?
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's decision to take no action on interest rates. He wonders if their "studious inactivity" is likely to prove wise and that all the evidence of mounting inflationary pressure will indeed be transient. Will we get the Goldilocks economy or has the horse already bolted through the open stable door? There must be a tipping point with interest rates in regard to equities, he says, but where will it be?
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: the unabridged Budget speech.

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: the unabridged Budget speech.
If you missed Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivering his speech on 27 October, here's your chance to hear it. Plus, read our commentary on Monday 1 November for Share Radio's perspective, including our assessment of the contrast with the mid-70s, when public borrowing last hit stratospheric levels.
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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget
Laith Khalaf of A J Bell discusses the slight fall in inflation last month to 3.1%, pointing out the distortions caused by the pandemic the year earlier. Markets are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November, but is it likely to happen? Laith looks forward to next week's Budget, thinking investors may be hit by a hike in CGT. And he also highlights the first Bitcoin ETF launching in the US, giving Bitcoin further legitimacy.
Guest:

Laith Khalaf

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Which "flation" are we heading for?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Which "flation" are we heading for?
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, states the case for us heading into a period of inflation, deflation and stagflation. But which will it be? Cautioning that while it might be too early to tell for sure, investors should not expect more of what we've had for the past decade or so. Russ gives some guides to indicators investors should keep an eye on. He also reminds investors that it is always sensible to have some cash in hand - just in case.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields (and why it matters) & Tesco

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields (and why it matters) & Tesco
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, discusses the recent sharp rise in gilt yields, explaining why it's happening (rising oil and gas prices and a fear of inflation) and why it is important for everyone, not just those with an interest in fixed interest securities. He also looks at the recent results from Tesco, which pleasantly surprised the market, and explains what the retailer is doing right at a time when one of its competitors has been taken over.
Guest:

Laith Khalaf

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are we heading for stagflation and what can investors do?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are we heading for stagflation and what can investors do?
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, looks at the oil and gas crisis, which is affecting many countries, not just the UK. Central bankers are now showing belated signs of being concerned about inflation and possibly even stagflation. With shortages of microchips, fuel, CO2 and even Christmas turkeys, Russ offers advice to investors who may never have experienced a time of stagflation, last seen in the 1970s.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How serious is Evergrande and are the Fed about to taper?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How serious is Evergrande and are the Fed about to taper?
Laith Khalaf, Head of Investment Analysis at A J Bell, looks at the problems of Chinese property company Evergrande and considers what the financial ramifications are likely to be. With the Federal Reserve hinting that it might begin cutting its pandemic stimulus as early as November, he looks at the popularity of the UK government's first green gilt, which could have been sold ten times over, and the impending arrival of an NS&I green savings bond later this year.
Guest:

Laith Khalaf

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The 50th anniversary of the demise of Bretton Woods

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The 50th anniversary of the demise of Bretton Woods
Russ Mould, Investment Director of A J Bell, and a history buff, considers similarities between today's financial environment and the closing of the gold window by President Nixon in 1971, since when the dollar has lost 85% of its purchasing power. He explains why it might make sense to buy toys early for Christmas and why investors might want to pay attention to the level of margin debt in the United States (one of the frothy areas of the market), as it has just dipped for the first time since February 2020.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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