‘The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way.’

Marcus Aurelius, Roman Emperor 161-180 AD

There's nothing like a General Election to flush out the old and bring in the new. There are more than 120 MPs (nearly 80 Conservative) who are not standing for re-election: one of the latest, and highest profile, being Michael Gove, who is aged just 56. Was it concern over worse to come that motivated Sunak to set the date, or facing up to the challenge? If it was the latter, he may have taken strength from this Aurelian quote — that challenges are not threats to our comfort but opportunities for growth, in the knowledge that resilience is the path to improvement.

‘First past the post’ democracy drives an emphasis on political parties which is not justified by experience when they are in power. Manifestos are published and commitments are made in the heat of the campaign, but the character of government can change massively over a five-year term: the past ten years have shown this in abundance in the United Kingdom, as we’ve moved through Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss and Sunak.

It's not just Conservatives, either: the shift in Labour from Corbyn (for whom Starmer was a senior shadow minister) to Starmer, and in the Scottish National Party from Sturgeon to Swinney have been substantial.

In particular we're seeing a convergence towards an intermediation-focused centre ground which is making the differential between the parties hard to assess, as media interviews have shown in the wake of Sunak’s surprise announcement last Wednesday afternoon. Further evidence of this convergence can be found in the number of members of parliament who have switched parties within the House of Commons, the most recent of whom is Natalie Elphick.

Parties may represent a gathering of MPs, but they don't define the character of the individuals who you're about to elect. So, more than ever in this election, search the character of your candidates with care. Do they stand for what you believe in, and can you rely on that being their first priority?

Listeners to our commentaries will be aware that our key concerns receive little more than lip service from all the political parties looking for our votes. These concerns are for:

  • a focused drive towards a more egalitarian form of capitalism;
  • reducing the extent of imposed control from government and its bureaucracy;
  • working hard to break the cycle of deprivation, by providing real opportunity for disadvantaged young people to achieve their potential in adult life; and
  • providing a strong, targeted safety net for those who cannot provide for themselves in contrast to universal welfare.

These concerns all require a much longer-term perspective for government, one which is not boxed into the five-year electoral cycle. The main way in which this can be achieved is by reforming the second chamber, with representatives standing for ten-year terms and on the basis of how people would like to see the country in fifty years’ time, in order to install a more constitutional approach and enable review of legislation in the context of its long-term suitability.

We also have a real determination to see a steady transition towards less national and more global government, as the big issues of wealth polarisation, the threat of climate change, and major international conflict and tensions bear down upon humanity. We can start by directly electing our UN reprentative, and encouraging other countries to do likewise.  

You'll find these concerns explained in more detail in our commentaries over the past couple of years, and they’re summarised in our ‘Manifesto for Manifestos’ commentary on 5th February.

But you won't find them properly addressed in the party manifestos for this coming election. Of course there'll be gestures in these directions, such as sorting out the NHS, ‘levelling up’, reducing the voting age, etc.. — but you can't just address symptoms with euphemisms: you have to address the causes behind them.

So, please attend your local hustings and challenge the candidates with some of these key concerns and, if they give you an arrogant brush-off, look elsewhere for the answer. Arrogance is the Achilles heel of the politician: it gets worse after they are elected, but watch out for it carefully at the candidacy stage as well.

General elections are also a real watershed for change: not just in the people who represent us but also as the slate is wiped clear, ready for the incoming administration. Over the past few days we've seen a raft of policies ditched in the ‘wash up’, but that's not all.

From the economic viewpoint, you will now almost certainly have to wait several months for a drop in interest rates, which will hold back economic growth. The sale of the Government's remaining stake in NatWest has also been shelved — thereby not only removing a major opportunity to re-invigorate popular capitalism, but also moving the sale away from the seasonally-optimal time of year for retail flotations.

There will, of course, be other excitements to look forward to in July: in the United States they'll be celebrating Independence Day as we head off to the polling booths, and in Paris they'll be gearing up for the 2024 Olympics and a celebration of that same great event one hundred years ago — and that's not to mention the raft of sporting events in the UK calendar in early July, or the fact that school holidays will have started in Scotland and just be getting underway in the rest of the United Kingdom.

Sunak predicted a hung parliament after the recent local election results, and that's indeed a likely outcome. As we commented on 7th May, the strong move away from the Conservatives was very splintered in terms of opposition benefit.

In a sense, this would be a good outcome — when politicians have to watch their step carefully, they tend to listen more closely to the people who have put them there. They also tend to behave better: the number of members of parliament who appear to have lost touch with morality over the past five years is an embarrassment to the United Kingdom. It may relate to the general fall in ethics as secularity encourages more focus on self-interest, but our politicians should do better.

So, there's lots of discuss over the coming six weeks, but will we get any clear answers?

Time will tell ..

Gavin Oldham OBE

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