“If arrogance is the Achilles heel of politicians, humility should be the yardstick by which they are measured.”

Gavin Oldham

When I wrote a lament for Afghanistan in last week’s commentary, none of us realised that the Taliban takeover of the country would be so swift. Comparisons have been drawn with the fall of Saigon in 1975, but evacuating a land-locked country surrounded by states hostile to the West is in a wholly different league.

It's all very well for Rory Stewart and others to speak of abandoning the country, but he was a minister in one of the several governments which attempted to turn Afghanistan into an isolated model of western democracy in the hostile and uncompromising environment which is Central Asia.

If we want authoritarian regimes to be a thing of the past, we have to start at home. There is ample opportunity to do so, and this week we illustrate that challenge with the need to accommodate our own demographic changes without falling foul of Trump-style authoritarianism here.  

Last Friday, Migration Watch published the scale of the UK’s demographic challenge in its findings - that foreign-born mothers account for more than half of all births in England's big cities. The chart below sets out the places with the highest proportion of these births, providing clear evidence of the demographic changes of which we wrote in summer 2020. So it's not only lifestyle which is changing incredibly swiftly, it's also ethnic diversity.

Of course, forced migration – whether from authoritarian regimes, or as a result of climate change or economics - will accelerate this change. In a few generations, the nature of the British population will have changed out of all recognition. If we do not accommodate these changes by conscious evolution, we are likely to experience periodic authoritarian reaction in the UK just as in America in 2016, and yet the demographic change is unstoppable. Authoritarian regimes simply make the whole process very stressful, and often violent.

There is a clear, unaddressed precedent for this in ‘free market’ capitalism, with its intense capacity to polarise wealth which results in socialist reaction: hence the efforts we are making to encourage a more egalitarian form of capitalism.

The key yardstick for this will be a ‘presumption in favour of disintermediation’: that disadvantaged young people should be empowered to take control of their own life journey, wherever possible.

We have to establish these principles first in western democracies, before trying to impose them in the heart of authoritarian Central Asia, and we have to do it in a way which fully recognises our growing ethnic diversity. This means that young people without any resources, and often without a stable family background and for whom English is not their first language, must be as empowered with equivalent starter capital resources and life skills as any other - so that they can achieve their potential in life.

However, the struggle experienced by disadvantaged young people even here in the UK shows that we have a long way to go, as evidenced by GCSE/A level grade disparities, and the challenge of linking these young people with their own Child Trust Funds starter capital accounts.

This ‘presumption in favour of disintermediation’ calls for acceptance of humidity in political leaders. It's a rare quality: Nelson Mandela and Mahatma Gandhi had it in abundance, but it doesn't come naturally to those with leadership ambitions.

Yet if humanity is to move beyond resorting to authoritarianism as soon as social, economic or migration challenges appear, leaders must learn both when to empower, and when to let go.

Last week I met the leadership team at Five Talents, the charity which is bringing real opportunity to communities in East Africa. They have learned this rare skill, and consciously look for the opportunity to move on when their work is done in a particular location.

In the Christian Bible, you'll find lots of examples of this teaching - not only in the gospel stories but also in, for example, the Old Testament story of King Solomon asking for the gift of wisdom. It's not new - it just takes a conscious effort to put it in place.

But it's more essential now than ever.

Gavin Oldham OBE

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